By Reid Wilson, Real Clear Politics

February 29, 2008

In 2006, Republican leaders were agonizingly slow to call for resignations from any of the several members who found themselves in serious trouble, handing Democrats a signature issue on which to run. The opposition highlighted Republicans Duke Cunningham, Bob Ney and Mark Foley as part of what they called the "culture of corruption," a message that strategists on both sides admit cost the GOP half a dozen or more seats.

Last week, when Arizona Republican Rick Renzi was indicted by a federal grand jury, House Minority Leader John Boehner quickly issued a harshly-worded statement that sent a clear message to the rest of his caucus: On his watch, behavior that reflects poorly on the Republican caucus will not be tolerated. The move signals a new approach to the sticky subject of members under investigation, but whether it will be enough to change the GOP's stained image is less than clear.

"The charges contained in this indictment are completely unacceptable for a member of Congress," Boehner said in a statement released just hours after the indictment was made public. "I strongly urge Rep. Renzi to seriously consider whether he can continue to effectively represent his constituents under these circumstances."

But Boehner, who said he is holding Republicans "to the highest standards of ethical conduct," stopped short of calling on Renzi to resign outright. And though he said he expected to meet with the beleaguered Arizonan, that meeting, according to a spokesman, has neither taken place nor been scheduled.

"Alone, Renzi's indictment may not hurt the GOP's chances in '08," said Tim Sahd, a Congressional elections expert who edits House Race Hotline. "But taken together with the myriad of other problems the party's having this cycle, it just becomes another piece of bad news to a party that can little afford it."

"Boehner's statement was the right response, however politically motivated it might have been," said Naomi Seligman Steiner, deputy director of Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, a Congressional watchdog group.

Others, though, don't believe Republican ethics will be an issue come November. "Back in 2006, the race for the House was the front-burner," national political analyst Rhodes Cook said. "The whole dynamic is different from the last election." With Republicans in the majority, Cook said, everything they did was under the spotlight.

"The spotlight has shifted from Congressional politics to presidential politics. That's the headline event," Cook said. After the battle for the Senate, House contests will be "a very distant third."

Boehner's new approach, while avoiding presuming guilt, is a step forward for the Republican conference. It is only the first step, though, in what is likely to be a long process. An October 2006 poll conducted by the Pew Research Center showed just 24% of respondents said the Republican Party would do a better job reforming government in Washington, while 41% chose Democrats. A new poll coming Thursday will show that margin has only increased, now benefiting Democrats by a two-to-one ratio.

That could hurt Republican candidates running for re-election around the country. Asked if Boehner's statement on Renzi, and a new hard-line approach to misbehaving members in general, could be good for their party's chances in November, NRCC spokesman Ken Spain would only say that chairman Tom Cole "strongly supports the leader's efforts."

"Boehner went as far as he could possibly go in asking Renzi to 'seriously consider' resigning. But it's in no way effective in erasing the GOP's ethics problems," Sahd said. Other Republians, too, could find themselves in similar positions down the road, including Alaska Rep. Don Young and California Rep. John Doolittle, both of whom remain under investigation. "These are problems that aren't going away any time soon."

Democrats are not immune from criticism about their handling of members under investigation. Louisiana Rep. Bill Jefferson, under indictment, has not been asked publicly to resign, while West Virginia Rep. Alan Mollohan remains under investigation for his role in steering earmarks to certain businesses in his district. But the party will likely point to ethics, lobbying and earmark reforms they pushed through Congress early last year as the beginning of a longer process.

While some national Democrats were quick to call for Renzi's resignation, Speaker Nancy Pelosi was not among them. Pelosi "believes it's up to [members'] constituents to decide if they want to elect someone who has been indicted," spokesman Brendan Daly said. "If either [Renzi or Jefferson] is convicted or pleads guilty, she would call on them to resign."

The DCCC has not called for Renzi to step down either. DCCC chairman Chris Van Hollen echoed Boehner, urging Renzi to do what is best for his constituents. Still, says spokesman Doug Thornell, ethics issues, if they play a role, will benefit his party. "Voters trust Democrats more on matters of ethics and corruption in cleaning up Washington," he said. "After years of Republicans running Congress as their own personal auction house, it will take some time to get rid of the stench they left behind."

Whether ethics issues will be a factor in voters' minds remains an open question. Perhaps, when the battle for the House returns to the front pages in 2010, the Republican brand will be more at issue. Boehner and other Republicans hope their harsher line will reach voters, though further indictments, a significant possibility, would only set those efforts back.

"The fact is that there are a good number of members of Congress under federal investigation - and it is only February," Seligman Steiner, of CREW, said. "With this latest indictment ... it is clear that ethics and corruption issues will again be important in this year's elections."

Then again, Republicans may be able to bank on a different appeal to voters: "They can say that they have already been punished by the voters," Cook said. "How can the Republicans be hurt more than they are?"