Renzi Win Not a Slam Dunk Now

By Bree Hocking, Roll Call

October 24, 2006

Although some Democrats believe the contest between Rep. Rick Renzi (R-Ariz.) and attorney Ellen Simon (D) could be ripe for a late break their way, an independent poll set to be released today will show the two-term lawmaker with a commanding lead in the sprawling 1st district.

The poll conducted by the Social Research Laboratory at Northern Arizona University will show “a double-digit” advantage for Renzi among likely voters, according to Fred Solop, director of the lab and a NAU political science professor.

“She’s having a little trouble getting out her message, and she’s having trouble holding on to her Democratic base,” Solop said.

Still, the poll will show a few factors running in Simon’s favor: a high number of undecideds (“upwards of 20 percent,” Solop said) and Renzi’s level of support below 50 percent.

With the national mood favoring Democrats and a recent automated poll showing Simon with a statistical lead, Renzi’s race, once considered a lock for the Republican, has been getting a second look from some prognosticators who had moved it out of the safe Republican column.

The district originally was drawn following the 2000 Census to be competitive between the two parties. But Democrats nominated flawed candidates in 2002 and 2004, and Renzi seemed fairly entrenched at the start of this election cycle.

Simon, who in September was added to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s list of emerging races, entered the race in the spring with plenty of strikes against her. At the time, the DCCC had written the district off. Simon first had to get through a crowded September primary and deal with a spate of media scrutiny related to her husband’s child support payments to his ex-wife, a Canadian heiress.

Simon, who has loaned her campaign more than $500,000 through Sept. 30, also is operating at a substantial disadvantage in the money chase, posting a mere $120,000 on hand at the close of the last filing period. In comparison, Renzi showed an $836,000 war chest.

“Nobody really knows whether she is going to self-fund, and that’s been kind of the enigma in this campaign,” said National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Jonathan Collegio. “This campaign doesn’t become serious till she self funds in a major way.”

But Renzi is taking the race seriously enough to go on the offensive in a major way. A current TV spot — set to run indefinitely — charges that Simon was president of the American Civil Liberties Union, a group, the ad asserts, that has defended the North American Man/Boy Love Association and “preys on our children.” The ad ends with the words “Radical. Liberal. Wrong for Arizona.”

Simon once served as the chairwoman of the Cleveland chapter of the ACLU (a volunteer post); her campaign spokesman David Flaks rejected the ad as “utterly ridiculous.”

The Renzi campaign also has targeted voters with robo-calls that link the ACLU to NAMBLA and al-Qaida and is touting its support from Grand Canyon State Democrats. Renzi campaign spokesman Vartan Djihanian said former Democratic gubernatorial candidate and ex-state legislator Alfredo Gutierrez would endorse Renzi today.

Renzi, who also was recently endorsed by The Arizona Republic, has brought in Republican heavyweights such as President Bush and former Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) to Arizona to raise funds for him. The NRCC paid for a poll of the race in September, though the results were never released.

Not until last Friday did Simon, who has been relying on cable and radio to get her message out on the airwaves, go up with her first network ad buy. The spot, now running in the Phoenix market, is hard-hitting, charging Renzi with taking “millions from special interests” and accepting “money from convicted or imprisoned politicians.” It also asserts that Renzi “gives sweetheart deals to his father’s defense company,” a likely reference to reports that Renzi previously had proposed an amendment that could have benefited a defense contracting company headed by his father. Renzi consistently has denied pushing the legislation because of his father.

“Vote ‘no’ on Rick Renzi,” the spot concludes. “He is everything you hate about Washington.”

The corruption issue clearly is one the Simon campaign is counting on to resonate with voters. The campaign repeatedly references Renzi’s ranking by the liberal Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington as one of the 13 most corrupt Members of Congress — a classification largely based on a Federal Election Commission investigation into whether Renzi funneled illegal contributions from his corporations to his campaign. Renzi has said that the money constituted earned payments to him and was therefore legal to use, and after a 15-month audit, the FEC dropped the investigation this year.

On paper, at least, the demographics in Arizona’s 1st district should favor a Democratic contender. The seat, which includes Flagstaff and Prescott and takes in more than half the state geographically, boasts a Democratic enrollment advantage of about 25,000 voters. But unaffiliated voters make up about a quarter of the electorate, and the district as it currently is drawn favored President Bush in both 2000 and 2004.

Solop said that many of the Democrats there were known as “pinto Democrats,” comfortable voting for Republicans and motivated by “values” issues. An Arizona ballot measure that would ban gay marriage and several anti-immigration ballot measures likely will increase conservative turnout on Nov. 7, he said, though he noted that a measure to boost the minimum wage could help with liberal turnout.

Renzi, who was endorsed by the Navajo Nation Council for re-election, has made considerable efforts to endear himself to the Navajos and other tribes in his district, which boasts the largest percentage of American Indians in the country. With a Navajo Nation general election slated for the same day as the midterm elections, many Arizona political observers believe the tribal elections may increase Navajo turnout for races up and down the Arizona ballot.

“It helps the Democrats, but it is not decisive,” Solop said of a surge in Navajo voting. He added that the recent Supreme Court decision allowing Arizona to enforce its voter identification law could depress Navajo turnout and other traditionally Democratic constituencies such as minorities and low-income voters.

The Simon campaign remains upbeat about its chances.

“We have the momentum right now going into Nov. 7,” Flaks said. “I think the more voters learn about Ellen Simon’s message for change, the more they will respond.”

But privately national Democrats admit it’s still Renzi’s race to lose.

“I think everyone agrees it’s tough to topple a well-funded incumbent,” said one national Democratic operative, who added: “I think the national climate is as strong for a challenger in the district as it has been since Renzi came to office.”